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Re: NordFX.com - ECN/STP, MT4, MT5, Multiterminal broker

Post  NordFX Sage on Mon Apr 17, 2017 3:40 am

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 17 - 21 April 2017

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- Seeing that EUR/USD had been oversold, both analysts and technical analysis expected it to bounce up, which is what happened. However, the bullish force in this case was only powerful enough to lift the pair to 1.0690 (as opposed to the expected 1.0750), after which the pair fell to the support area near 1.0610;

- A rebound of GBP/USD was expected as well. The reason for this forecast was the area of a strong medium-term support, which the pair had been near to. The height of 1.2500 was named as a target: the pair reached it in the first half of the week, and subsequently decided to take a break for almost a day. Then, having gathered its forces, it rose by another 75 points, reaching the height of 1.2575 on Thursday;

- As for the future of USD/JPY, everyone - experts, graphical analysis, and indicators - expected the pair to retest the local minimum at 110.00. The minimum did indeed turn out to be local: the pair easily overcame this barrier and fell by another 140 points by the end of the weekly session;

- USD/CHF. Here, about one quarter of analysts and graphical analysis on H4 expected that the pair would continue to move in the downward medium-term channel (this channel started in December 2016 and is clearly visible on D1 and W1), and would strive to reach its centre line in the 0.9950 area. The pair did indeed move southwards the entire week, resting on the upper boundary of the channel; it could not, however, overcome the symbolic support at 1.0000 and completed the week-long session near the 1.0050 horizon.

***
Forecast for the coming week:
Summarizing the views of a number of analysts from leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Here most analysts (60%), supported by nearly 90% of indicators, still side with the bears, waiting for the pair’s fall to the 1.0500 zone. An alternative point of view is expressed by graphical analysis on H4 as well as 40% of experts. According to them, the pair, whilst moving in the medium-term rising channel that began in December 2016, will first grow to 1.0690 and then by another 130 points to 1.0820;

- in the medium term, nearly 80% of experts expect a falling GBP/USD (support 1.2420, 1.2360 and 1.2110). As for the immediate future, most analysts (60%), supported by both oscillators and trend indicators, lean towards the view that the upward momentum has not yet been exhausted, and that the pair will reach at least 1.2615. The next resistance is at 1.2375;

- there is a discrepancy between the weekly and medium-term forecasts for USD/JPY as well. So, if in the short term, 70% of analysts speak of the continuation of the downward trend to 107.50-107.85, the monthly and quarterly forecasts point northwards. The targets remain the same: 112.00 and 113.55. As for technical analysis, here the forces are distributed in the following way: graphical analysis on D1, 100% of trend indicators and 95% of oscillators side with the bears. On the side of the bulls, 5% of the oscillators that fix the extent of the pair’s overselling and graphical analysis on H4 both predict its growth to 110.50;

- USD/CHF. For the week to come, half of the analysts, along with graphical analysis and trend indicators on H4, expect the pair to move in the lateral channel of 1.0008-1.0100. The other half of experts, supported by the oscillators on H4, vote for its descent into the 0.9980 zone. As for the medium-term forecast, here almost 60% of analysts look northwards to 1.0170. Both oscillators and trend indicators on D1 agree with this point of view.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Re: NordFX.com - ECN/STP, MT4, MT5, Multiterminal broker

Post  NordFX Sage on Sat Apr 22, 2017 5:18 am

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 24-28 April 2017

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- In the opinion of almost half of the experts (40%), supported by graphical analysis on H4, the pair EUR/USD, which has been moving in the medium-term rising channel that began in December 2016, had been expected to rise to 1.0690, and then by yet another 130 points. It turned out that the pair indeed immediately went northwards, starting from Monday; on Tuesday, it broke through the resistance at 1.0690 and, having turned it into a support level, the pair reached 1.0780. After this, the bulls’ energy dried up, and the pair returned to the 1.0690 zone by the end of the week’s session;

- A rebound had been expected for GBP/USD. Most analysts, supported by oscillators and trend indicators, had been inclined towards the view that the pair’s upward propulsion had not yet been exhausted and that it could reach the height of 1.2705. Not many expected the powerful support British Prime Minister Teresa May gave the bulls in announcing snap parliamentary elections. Because of such support, the pair soared almost 400 points, only stopping at 1.2904. After that, it turned and slowly descended to the strong Pivot level which the pair has been fluctuating since June 2016;

- USD/JPY. Here there was a discrepancy between the weekly and the medium-term forecasts: the former pointed southwards, the latter to the north. As a result, the pair moved in the side channel 108.10 -109.20 for almost the entire week, dominated slightly by bullish trends. It was the bulls who tried to break the upper boundary of this channel at the end of the week. However, this breakthrough was unsuccessful, since, having risen by only 30 points, the pair quickly returned to the sideways corridor;

- Unlike EUR/USD, USD/CHF reacted rather violently to the British Prime Minister’s announcement. Whilst half of the experts along with the oscillators had expected its fall to the level of 0.9980, in reality the local minimum ended up being 40 points lower. However, the pair "changed its mind" afterwards and returned to where the analysts had indicated: the zone 0.9980.

***

Forecast for the coming week:
Summarizing the views of a number of analysts from leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as the forecasts made based on a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:

- The ECB and the Bank of Japan rate decisions should prove unsurprising. The presidential elections in France, however, may cause increased volatility. It is also possible, though, that there will be no sharp exchange rate jumps, especially if the vote reaches the second round. Uncertainty related to these elections has led to uncertainty in experts’ opinions. Thus, in giving their weekly forecast for EUR/USD, one third of them thought the pair will grow, one third has spoken of a fall and one third of a sideways trend. If we now turn to the medium-term forecast, here already 65% of experts, supported by graphical analysis, vote for the pair falling, indicating 1.0500 and 1.0350 as target levels. An alternative view is represented by 35% of analysts and indicators on D1, according to which the pair must return to the highs of February-March 2017;

- In the medium term, nearly 85% of experts continue to expect GBP/USD to fall (support levels are 1.2575, 1.2490, 1.2365). As for the immediate future, the situation is different: only 30% of analysts vote for its fall. The others expect it to return to the previous week’s highs and to fix in the 1.2900-1.3000 area. Both graphical analysis on H4, and indicators on D1 agree with this prospect. Only 10% of oscillators yet indicate that the pair is overbought;

- There still remains an obvious discrepancy between the week-long and medium-term forecasts for USD/JPY as well. So, if in the short term 60% of analysts speak about its fall, the monthly and quarterly forecasts are oriented northwards. The targets are the same: 112.00 and 113.55. As for technical analysis, graphical analysis and oscillators on H4 show the continuation of the pair's lateral movement in the 108.30-109.50 channel;

- Regarding USD/CHF, the battle here is between experts and indicators. 80% of analysts believe that the pair is sure to grow to the 1.0000-1.0100 zone, and 85% of oscillators and trend indicators on D1 expect it to drop. A compromise is offered by graphical analysis, which points first to the growth of the pair to 1.0050 and then to its fall to the local minimum of 0.9940.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Re: NordFX.com - ECN/STP, MT4, MT5, Multiterminal broker

Post  NordFX Sage on Sun Apr 30, 2017 2:09 am

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 01 - 05 May 2017

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- When giving the forecast for EUR/USD, 35% of experts and indicators on D1 insisted that it should return to the highs of February and March 2017. This is what happened in response to the first round of the French presidential elections. Having established an impressive gap at the opening of the weekly session, the pair rose to 1.0900, where it spent the whole week, turning this level into a Power Point;

- after an inspiring leap upwards on 18 March, GBP/USD reacted calmly to the elections in France: there were no gaps and, instead, there was a smooth increase by 180 points during the week. The roots of this growth are at the support at 1.2775, which used to be the upper limit of six-month long side channel;

- The French elections tsunami has reached the Japanese islands and has swept USD/JPY towards a strong medium-term support / resistance level around 111.60. It should be noted that analysts have long expected the growth of the pair to 112.00, to which it came very close: it checked out on Wednesday at the height of 111.77;

- The gap at the beginning of the week gave additional strength to the bears. Hence, the pair USD/CHF continued its downward trend, which began on April 10. The pair fell by almost 100 points, reaching the local bottom at 0.9893, and then it turned and finished the week at the level of 0.9950.

***

Forecast for the coming week:
Summarizing the views of a number of analysts from leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as the forecasts made based on a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:

- Regarding the indicators, in predicting the future of the EUR/USD, more than 80% of them are oriented northwards, pointing to 1.1120 as the target height. However, one third of oscillators on D1 have already indicated that the pair is overbought. Expert opinions regarding its nearest future are almost equally divided: 35% foresee the growth of the pair, 30% anticipate its fall and 35% predict a sideways trend. But in the medium term, the picture is quite different: here, 80% of experts vote for the fall of the pair to an initial support 1.0680 and a subsequent one of 1.0570;

- GBP/USD. It is for the second week running that the pair moves in the corridor that separates the two side channels: the upper one of July-October 2016, and lower one of October 2016 - April 2017. 65% of the experts believe that the pair will be unable to overcome the resistance of 1.3055 and will return to the channel’s lower boundary as early as in the first half of May. Support levels are 1.2570, 1.2375 and 1.2130. An alternative point of view is supported by 35% of analysts who predict that the immediate goals for the pair are 1.3370 and 1.3445. As for the graphical analysis, on H4 it points to a sideways trend in the range of 1.2775-1.3055;

- USD/JPY. Finally, analysts' opinions are aligned with the indicator readings, and more than 80% of them predict a continuation of the upward trend for this pair. The main goals are 113.55 and 115.50. This does not exclude a short-term slide of the pair to the 110.00 horizon;

- as often happens, the future of USD/CHF represents a mirror image of the EUR/USD. And if, in the short term, 75% of experts speak about the continuation of the downward trend, when giving a medium-term forecast 70% of them see growth. There are support levels at 0.9920, 0.9890 and 0.9820. The target heights are 1.0000 and 1.0100. As for graphical analysis, on H4 it points to the growth of the pair to 1.0040 in the coming days.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Post  NordFX Sage on Sun May 07, 2017 8:01 am

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 08 - 12 May 2017

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- Recall that the experts’ opinions on EUR/USD a week ago were divided almost equally: 35% supported the growth of the pair, 30% voted for its fall and 35% foresaw a sideways trend. At the same time, more than 80% of indicators were oriented to the north: they turned out to be right. The ECB President Mario Draghi' s speech, coupled with optimism about the second round of elections in France, provided the euro with such strong support that this pair chose to ignore even very positive data on the US labour market published on Friday 5 May. Thus, the pair finished the week session near 1.1000, having risen by about 100 points in five days;

- GBP/USD. 65% of experts, together with graphical analysis on H4, suggested that the pair would fail to overcome the resistance of 1.3055 and would stay in the side channel 1.2775-1.3055 for the entire week. This forecast proved to be quite accurate, although the pair's fluctuations proved even more sluggish than expected: as a result, the pair did not even manage to leave the 1.2830-1.2983 range;

- The forecast for the future of USD/JPY was surprising because of the fact that analysts' opinions coincided with indicator readings, which was something we had not seen for quite some time: more than 80% of them predicted a continuation of the uptrend for this pair. The forecast was 100% correct. Already on Thursday, having risen by 185 points, the pair managed to reach 113.00;

- The forecast for USD/CHF also turned out to be correct. The absolute majority of experts (75%) insisted on the continuation of the downtrend, identifying the levels of 0.9890 and 0.9820 as support levels. Thus, the pair fixed the local bottom near the middle of this range at 0.9858, and finished the week session at 0.9870.

***

Forecast for the coming week:
Summarizing the views of a number of analysts from leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:

- The forecast for EUR/USD resembles the one that was given last week. More than 90% of indicators point northwards, while at the same time one third of oscillators on D1 signal the pair is overbought. As for analysts, a good 65% of them believe that the pair will try to secure a position above 1.0930 and 1.0850. And, just like last week, the medium-term forecast directly opposes the weekly one: here more than 60% of experts still expect the pair to fall into the 1.0400-1.0600 zone;

- Analysts express a similar opinion about the future of GBP/USD. The forecast for the coming days is as follows: 60% predict the growth of the pair, 40% predict its fall. The medium-term forecast, meanwhile, has 75% standing behind the fall of the pair and only 25% foreseeing its growth. Graphical analysis and almost 80% of trend indicators and oscillators agree with both the short and medium-term outlooks. The target for the coming days is the 1.3100-1.3150 zone, and the support levels are 1.2835 and 1.2770. In the medium term, we can expect a drop to the levels of 1.2570, 1.2375 and 1.2130;

- USD/JPY. The majority (60%) of experts believe that, seeing as the pair has reached the upper boundary of the descending channel that began at the end of December 2016, it should now be expected to descend. Graphical analysis on H4 and D1 agrees with such a forecast: according to its readings, the pair can fall first to 111.55, and then, after a short rebound, even further southwards to the 108.50 mark. An alternative point of view is represented by 40% of experts who, along with the indicators, expect the pair to grow to 115.00;

- Once again, the future of USD/CHF is expected to be a mirror image of EUR/USD: it will first go southwards to the support level of 0.9800, and then perform a 180-degree turn in order to return to the 1.0000-1.0100 zone. This scenario is supported by about 70% of analysts. However, in addition to the elections in France, whose results we expect to be announced on Monday, the second half of the week will also be filled with important economic and political events that are likely to affect the world’s major currencies. Thus, the most pessimistic forecast for the US dollar, supported by 30% of experts, does not exclude the fall of USD/CHF to 0.9550.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Post  NordFX Sage on Sun May 14, 2017 6:40 am

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 15 - 19 May 2017

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- Recall that the experts' forecasts regarding the behaviour of EUR/USD in the short and medium term were fully opposed. Thus, in the first case, most of them favoured the growth of the pair, whilst in the second they favoured its fall. And, as it often happens, the medium-term forecast turned out to be the most accurate: until Thursday, the pair moved in a downtrend, losing more than 180 points over this period. However, on Friday, data on retail sales in the US was released, which played into the hands of bulls: instead of the expected 0.6%, consumer spending growth was only 0.4%: as a result, the pair drastically launched northwards and froze near the strong medium-term resistance line at 1.0932;

- A similar discrepancy among analysts was observed with respect to the future of GBP/USD. Apart from that, it was projected that the nearest support was at the level of 1.2835, and the resistance was 1.3100. However, just like two weeks ago, the pair ended up behaving more calmly than expected; it stayed within 1.2843-1.2986;

- For almost two months we have been stating in each of our forecasts for USD/JPY that experts are expecting its return first to 113.55, and then to 115.00. The pair has finally conquered the first of these heights and came close to the second one, reaching 114.36 just this week. After this victory, the strength of the bulls dried up, and the pair retreated downwards by 100 points, finishing the week at 113.35;

- An absolute majority (70%) of analysts expected the pair USD/CHF to return to the 1.0000-1.0100 zone. This forecast turned out to be 100% true: the maximum of this week ended up being 1.0098, and the pair met the end of the week’s session at 1.0007.

***
Forecast for the coming week:
Summarizing the views of a number of analysts from leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The calendar for the upcoming week is not marked by any special economic or political events. This might be the reason why more than 50% of analysts, supported by almost half of the oscillators at D1, predict a lateral movement of this pair. The second fairly large group of experts (about 40%) believes that the pair will again test the height of 1.1000. 10% of experts still believe, though, that the pair will immediately head to the south. Interestingly, their point of view is supported by graphical analysis and almost half of the oscillators on H4, which indicate that this pair is overbought. Moreover, in the medium term, 65% of analysts expect it to fall. The nearest support is 1.0850, the medium-term goal is to return to the 1.0500-1.0680 zone;

- As for the future of GBP/USD, here the trend indicators on D1 insist on the continuation of the sluggish-upward trend, which began in the last decade of April. 30% of experts agree with this point of view, believing that the pair must necessarily break the 1.3000 barrier. An alternative point of view is represented by 70% of analysts, 60% of trend indicators and 90% of oscillators on H4. All of them insist it is best to start selling this pair and suggest the nearest support is 1.2755. If we look at the medium-term forecast, the number of bear supporters among the analysts already exceeds 80%; 1.2100 is declared the main target.

- USD/JPY. After this pair’s impressive spurt upwards in the first half of last week and a sufficiently strong retracement in the second, the indicator readings turned out to be diametrically opposite: on D1, they recommend buying the pair, whilst on H4 they recommend selling. Analysts cannot come to any consensus either: one third of them predict the fall of the pair, another third its growth, and the remaining third foresee a sideways trend. At the same time, about 60% of experts believe that, leaning against the support in the 111.60-111.79 zone, the pair still should try to conquer the height of 115.50 in the next few weeks;

- The last pair of our review, as usual, is USD/CHF. Just like its chart for the past week ended up being similar to the USD/JPY chart, so are the forecasts of the indicators regarding its future: D1 advises to buy and H4 advises selling. As for the experts and graphical analysis, in their opinion, the pair will first have to drop to the 0.9940-0.9960 zone, then claw its way back to 0.9990, before finally returning to the 1.0050-1.0100 area once again.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options
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Post  NordFX Sage on Sun May 21, 2017 9:12 am

US Confidence TRUMPed: EUR/USD 1.16, US Markets Fall 10%

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 22 - 26 May 2017. But first, a few words about what happened last week:

Experts and technical analysis make predictions. Politicians shape reality and last week made this very clear. The last few days "presented" the world with several scandals related to US President Donald Trump. This was the firing of the FBI Director James Comey, the related controversy around the possible transfer of confidential information by Trump to the Russian diplomats, and subsequent rumours of Trump’s possible impeachment ...
All this resulted in a sharp weakening of the dollar and the fall of the US stock market. Suffice to say that, according to Bloomberg, over the past few days, businessmen from the 500 world richest people list became poorer by $ 35 billion.

- Huge losses were suffered by those who believed the dollar would rise and held short positions in the pair EUR/USD. Beginning on 11 May, the pair made a dizzying take-off of almost 375 points, all without any correction or rebound. It was only on Thursday 18 May, that it gave the "bears" the smallest reason for hope. However, it still proceeded to fly up 135 points and completed the five-day period at 1.1207;

- As for GBP/USD, this pair behaved much more calmly compared to the single European currency. The growth of the pair comprised only 160 points, which fully fits into its weekly framework. This growth had been predicted by 30% of experts and trend indicators, who insisted that it should overcome the 1.3000 level. This indeed ended up happening - the pair finished the week session at 1.3035.

- Whilst the British Isles have withstood the tsunami that came from the US and emerged composed, another set of islands far to the east – Japan - experienced a much larger wave: USD/JPY lost about 360 points. Even though at the very end of the week the bulls did manage to claw back about 100 points, the pair nevertheless rolled back into the zone where it was in late March and early April this year;

- It is common knowledge that USD/CHF often mirrors the fluctuations of EUR/USD. This happened this time as well, with the only difference that, unlike the European currency, the Swiss franc did not allow itself any corrections and continuously grew all week, having won about 285 points from the US dollar.

***
Forecast for the coming week:
There is a very high chance that in the coming week the movement of major currencies will be determined not only by technical analysis, but by the fundamental forces of global politics and economics. That's why this time we have focused on the forecasts given not by indicators and charts, but by experts from a number of leading world banks and brokerage companies:

- It is clear that 100% trend indicators show the growth of the EUR/USD pair. At the same time, one third of the oscillators on H4 and D1 signal that it is overbought. Approximately 70% analysts agree with them, expecting the pair to return to at least the level of 1.1080. As for the medium-term forecast, here 80% of analysts expect the pair to fall to the 1.0600-1.0670 zone.
Yet, there also exists is another point of view. For example, experts from the major French bank Credit Agricole believe that the euro is undervalued and has a high chance of growing until the quotes of EUR/USD rise to 1.15-1.16.
These analysts are echoed by specialists from Bridgewater Associates, one of the world’s largest hedge funds. They suggest that in the event of Donald Trump's impeachment, the probability of which is currently priced at 50%, the shares of leading US companies’ may fall by over 10%.

- As for the future of GBP/USD, the analysts' forecast looks like this: about 25% of experts believe the pair will be able to rise and gain a foothold above 1.3170. Most experts (75%), however, tend to the view that the pair should return to 1.2365-1.2570 over the next few weeks;

- USD/JPY. Regarding the pair’s behaviour next week, 80% of experts, along with graphic analysis on H4, expect this pair to descend to support in the 110.00 zone and further move in the side channel 110.00-111.60. However, if you extend the forecast by two or three months, the picture shifts completely to the opposite. On this time horizon, most analysts (65%) believe that the pair should return to an uptrend and once again rush to attack the height of 115.50;

- The last pair of our review is USD/CHF. Expert opinion here is divided as follows: 60% believe that the pair will continue to fall and reach the local bottom at 0.9650; the remaining 40% are guided by the fact that the pair is currently in the lower boundary of the medium-term down channel, which began in the early days of January 2016 and is clearly visible on the D1 and W1 charts. This gives a reason to expect the pair to turn and rebound to the middle line of the channel in the 0.9900 area, and then to its upper border at 1.0000. It should be noted that, in the medium term, about 70% experts agree with this view of events. However, as we wrote at the beginning of the forecast, much will depend on how tight the relationship between Donald Trump and the US Congress will actually prove to be.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options
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Post  NordFX Sage on Sun May 21, 2017 9:14 am

US Confidence TRUMPed: EUR/USD 1.16, US Markets Fall 10%

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 22 - 26 May 2017. But first, a few words about what happened last week:

Experts and technical analysis make predictions. Politicians shape reality and last week made this very clear. The last few days "presented" the world with several scandals related to US President Donald Trump. This was the firing of the FBI Director James Comey, the related controversy around the possible transfer of confidential information by Trump to the Russian diplomats, and subsequent rumours of Trump’s possible impeachment ...
All this resulted in a sharp weakening of the dollar and the fall of the US stock market. Suffice to say that, according to Bloomberg, over the past few days, businessmen from the 500 world richest people list became poorer by $ 35 billion.

- Huge losses were suffered by those who believed the dollar would rise and held short positions in the pair EUR/USD. Beginning on 11 May, the pair made a dizzying take-off of almost 375 points, all without any correction or rebound. It was only on Thursday 18 May, that it gave the "bears" the smallest reason for hope. However, it still proceeded to fly up 135 points and completed the five-day period at 1.1207;

- As for GBP/USD, this pair behaved much more calmly compared to the single European currency. The growth of the pair comprised only 160 points, which fully fits into its weekly framework. This growth had been predicted by 30% of experts and trend indicators, who insisted that it should overcome the 1.3000 level. This indeed ended up happening - the pair finished the week session at 1.3035.

- Whilst the British Isles have withstood the tsunami that came from the US and emerged composed, another set of islands far to the east – Japan - experienced a much larger wave: USD/JPY lost about 360 points. Even though at the very end of the week the bulls did manage to claw back about 100 points, the pair nevertheless rolled back into the zone where it was in late March and early April this year;

- It is common knowledge that USD/CHF often mirrors the fluctuations of EUR/USD. This happened this time as well, with the only difference that, unlike the European currency, the Swiss franc did not allow itself any corrections and continuously grew all week, having won about 285 points from the US dollar.

***
Forecast for the coming week:
There is a very high chance that in the coming week the movement of major currencies will be determined not only by technical analysis, but by the fundamental forces of global politics and economics. That's why this time we have focused on the forecasts given not by indicators and charts, but by experts from a number of leading world banks and brokerage companies:

- It is clear that 100% trend indicators show the growth of the EUR/USD pair. At the same time, one third of the oscillators on H4 and D1 signal that it is overbought. Approximately 70% analysts agree with them, expecting the pair to return to at least the level of 1.1080. As for the medium-term forecast, here 80% of analysts expect the pair to fall to the 1.0600-1.0670 zone.
Yet, there also exists is another point of view. For example, experts from the major French bank Credit Agricole believe that the euro is undervalued and has a high chance of growing until the quotes of EUR/USD rise to 1.15-1.16.
These analysts are echoed by specialists from Bridgewater Associates, one of the world’s largest hedge funds. They suggest that in the event of Donald Trump's impeachment, the probability of which is currently priced at 50%, the shares of leading US companies’ may fall by over 10%.

- As for the future of GBP/USD, the analysts' forecast looks like this: about 25% of experts believe the pair will be able to rise and gain a foothold above 1.3170. Most experts (75%), however, tend to the view that the pair should return to 1.2365-1.2570 over the next few weeks;

- USD/JPY. Regarding the pair’s behaviour next week, 80% of experts, along with graphic analysis on H4, expect this pair to descend to support in the 110.00 zone and further move in the side channel 110.00-111.60. However, if you extend the forecast by two or three months, the picture shifts completely to the opposite. On this time horizon, most analysts (65%) believe that the pair should return to an uptrend and once again rush to attack the height of 115.50;

- The last pair of our review is USD/CHF. Expert opinion here is divided as follows: 60% believe that the pair will continue to fall and reach the local bottom at 0.9650; the remaining 40% are guided by the fact that the pair is currently in the lower boundary of the medium-term down channel, which began in the early days of January 2016 and is clearly visible on the D1 and W1 charts. This gives a reason to expect the pair to turn and rebound to the middle line of the channel in the 0.9900 area, and then to its upper border at 1.0000. It should be noted that, in the medium term, about 70% experts agree with this view of events. However, as we wrote at the beginning of the forecast, much will depend on how tight the relationship between Donald Trump and the US Congress will actually prove to be.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Post  NordFX Sage on Sat May 27, 2017 1:52 pm

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for May 29 - June 2, 2017

First, a review of last week’s forecast:
- As we wrote last time, whilst experts and technical analysis make predictions, it is politicians that make reality. The President of the United States Donald Trump spent the past week in Europe, causing the scandals associated with him to temporarily quiet down. This led to a lull in the financial markets, which neither the OPEC meeting on Thursday 25 May or, notably, the G7 leadership meeting could shake. EUR/USD spent the whole week in the 1.1160-1.1267 side corridor, as if waiting for new events, and finished the five-day period practically in the same place where it started: at 1.1185;

- As for GBP/USD, recall that the bulk of experts (75%) voted for this pair’s fall. They ended up being right. This forecast was of a medium-term nature, so the fall of GBP/USD by 265 points (from 1.3040 to 1.2775) can be considered only a forerunner of the inception of this trend;

- As for USD/JPY, this pair, after the shocks of the second fortnight of May, decided to take a breather, just like EUR/USD. It moved in a side channel the entire week, rotating around the 111.30 Pivot Point: the precise point where it completed the week's session;

- It is common knowledge that USD/CHF often mirrors the fluctuations of EUR/USD. This exact phenomenon was observed this time: its lateral trend was restricted to the range of 0.9690-0.9775, and the pair finished in the same place it started five days prior, at 0.9744.

***
Many analysts seem to think that during all of 2017 the foreign exchange market will be shaped by the unpredictability surrounding Donald Trump’s Presidency of the United States, rather than by any of the usual economic forces.
As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of analysts from a number of banks and broker companies, as well as forecasts made based on a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- If one were to draw a conclusion from conducting graphical analysis on H4, one would say that in the coming days EUR/USD expects a decline to the support at 1.1075; if it breaks though this support it would fall into the 1.1000 zone. The main resistance in this scenario would be in the 1.1270 zone. 60% of experts agree with this forecast, as do the overwhelming majority of trend indicators and oscillators on H4.
At the same time, it should be noted that on Friday the data on the US labor market (NFP) will be published: the forecasts of the NFP, a very important driving force for dollar movements, suggests a negative outlook for the US dollar. Perhaps this is why about 40% of analysts predict the growth of the pair to 1.1400, after which the pair is nevertheless expected to decline.
It should be noted that, in the medium term, the number of supporters of the EUR/USD decline exceeds 80%, just as it had been previously;

- As for the future of GBP/USD, here, quite naturally, a clear majority of indicators point southwards. However, almost 80% of experts believe that, in the near future, the pair will not fall below 1.2755 and will continue to move in the rising channel that has been prevailing since mid-March, in an attempt to break through the resistance at 1.3050. As for the medium-term forecast, almost 70% of analysts now stand on the side of the bears, saying that, in the end, the pair will return to the 1.2 400-1.2615 side channel;

- USD/JPY. When giving a forecast for the coming week, experts are divided into two precisely equal-sized groups: 50% predict the fall of the pair and 50% predict its growth. Graphical analysis, meanwhile, suggests the following scenario for H4: first, a fall of the pair into the 110.85-111.00 area, and then its subsequent growth to the resistance at 111.90; in the event this resistance is broken, the pair should reach 112.50. On D1, the expected movements of the pair differ somewhat: the drop is expected to be to 110.00, whilst the subsequent rebound is thought to be to the resistance at 112.25. As for the medium-term outlook, here the benchmarks remain unchanged: almost 80% of analysts cast their votes for the growth of the pair to 114.50;

- The last pair of our review is USD/CHF. Even now about half of the oscillators on H4 indicate this pair is overbought and recommend opening long positions. As for the rest of indicators, they have taken a neutral position, believing that the pair will stay in the sideways trend within the 0.9690-0.9775 range for a while. Almost 70% of experts agree with these latter readings, believing that the pair will definitely test the lower limit of this channel at least once more. Its subsequent fate, in the opinion of most analysts and graphical analysis on H4, is a return into the 0.9890-0.9965 zone.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Post  NordFX Sage on Sat Jun 03, 2017 10:58 am

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 05 - 09 June 2017

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- The previous forecast for EUR/USD turned out to be quite accurate when it came to trends, but the pair’s volatility turned out to be more modest than expected. Recall that 60% of experts predicted the pair’s decline to 1.1075; the pair did indeed start its descent on Monday but turned northwards when it was still 30 points away from target. This turn of events had been supported by 40% of analysts, who had expected that against the background of negative data for the dollar stemming from the NFP (survey of employment in the US outside the agricultural sector), the pair would soar to 1.1400 by the end of the week. The forecast came true only partially: the pair did go up, but ended the five-day period at 1.1280, without having reached 1.1300;

- GBP/USD. Recall that the forecast, supported by most experts (80%), said that the pair would rise after it reached support at 1.2755 in an attempt to break through the resistance at 1.3050. The bearish side of the forecast was true. The strength of the bulls, however, was clearly overrated. As expected, the pair found its minimum at 1.2765. When it pushed away from it, though, it rose only by 165 points to 1.2920. After this, the bulls’ strength dried up, which allowed the pair to slip into a sideways trend that anticipated the parliamentary elections on 8 June;

- USD/JPY. Here, the most accurate forecaster was graphical analysis. According to its readings, the pair was supposed to decline to 110.85 (it actually fell to 110.50), before growing to the resistance at 111.90 (it grew to 111.70). The pair reacted to the NFP data by having the dollar fall 140 points. As a result, it managed to return to the week's minimum in the 110.40 zone;

- Almost 70% of experts expected that USD/CHF would once again test the support of 0.9690. The test did happen and the pair managed to pass it, having mirrored the performance of EUR/USD. As a result, USD/CHF managed to break this support following the release of the NFP data, completing the week session at the level of 0.9625.

***
As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of analysts from a number of banks and broker companies, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. It is clear that, in the case of EUR/USD, the pair is not considered overbought: only 5% of oscillators on H4 and D1 say it is. Almost all indicators vote for the growth of the pair, naming the resistance level at 1400 and the May 2016 maximum of 1.1600 as the two main targets. And as for graphical analysis on H4, its readings suggest that in the next few days the pair may fall to 1.1100. Moreover, about 70% of experts insist on the pair's decline.
It should be noted that, in the medium term, the number of supporters of a EUR/USD decline has already reached 85%. This decline is expected to be into the 1.0900-1.1000 zone;

- As for the future of GBP/USD, here, unlike the previous pair, the indicators do not agree: about a third of them advise buying the pair, a third suggest selling, and the rest have simply taken a neutral position. Graphical analysis on D1 draws a side channel of 1.2770-1.3050 for the pair. What is obvious, however, is that none of these methods of technical analysis are able to factor in the occurrence of snap parliamentary elections in Britain on Thursday, 8 June. But it is these very elections that will determine how Brexit will pan out.
Judging by analysts' forecasts, they do not expect anything good for the pound. For starters, almost 90% of them expect this pair's decline in June, first to the support at 1.2765, and then even lower to 1.2600;

- USD/JPY. After the fall of this pair by 140 points on Friday, 2 June, about 20% of oscillators indicate it is oversold and advise opening long positions. Graphical analysis on H4 agrees with this. It does not exclude, though, that the pair may first descend to the support at 110.00; only after this would it allow the bulls to take the upper hand and push it to 111.00.
Giving the forecast for the next few weeks, about 85% of experts, supported by graphical analysis on D1, expect the pair to grow to 112.00-114.30;

- The last pair of our review is USD/CHF. If you look at the readings of graphical analysis on H4, you will expect the pair’s dizzying take-off to the 1.0000 zone in the next few days. Whilst analysts generally agree with this, their forecast looks much calmer. Only 50% think the pair will return to 0.9760 in the next five days. Meanwhile, more than 90% of them believe that until the the pair will still be able to win back the May losses by mid-summer, returning to the landmark level of 1.0000.
In the case if the dollar, thanks to the Donald Trump’s administration, it remains under pressure: the pair may fall to the zone of 0.9540. The next support is at 0.9475.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Post  NordFX Sage on Sun Jun 11, 2017 4:40 am

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 12 - 16 June 2017

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- Let us recall that in the forecasts regarding EUR/USD, most experts (70%), supported by graphical analysis on H4, spoke about the possible decline of the pair to 1.1100. The forecast proved correct, with the pair having lost about 120 points in the course of the week. However, it ended up being 65 points short of the named target, having only managed to reach 1.1165 before turning and arriving at 1.1195;

- It is clear that the behavior of GBP/USD last week was determined by the snap parliamentary elections in the UK, the outcome of which was quite unexpected and rather unpleasant for the governing Conservative Party. Note that the forecasts of financial analysts we published last week turned out to be much more accurate than any voting polls. Recall that our experts expected the fall of the British pound first to 1.2765 and then to the support at 1.2600. Allowing for standard error adjustments, this is exactly what ended up happening: on Friday, the pair reached the local bottom at 1.2633, after which it gained back just over 100 points. It finished the five-day period in the 1.2740 zone;

- USD/JPY. Last week, we were unable to give a clear-cut forecast for this pair. The scenario closest to reality turned out to be that described by graphical analysis, which talked about an initial fall of the pair to the support at 110.00 (in reality, this level ended up being 109.10), and then a reversal and subsequent growth to 111.00 (in reality, the growth was to 110.80). The net movement following the week’s activity is virtually zero: the pair finished almost at the same level, where it started;

- USD/CHF. Boiling down the results of technical and fundamental analysis last week, in general, the leanings of both indicators and analysts were bullish: everyone expected the pair to grow. The question was only about how much the pair would actually grow: whether sharply to the landmark level of 1.0000, or more modestly to 0.9760. The pair, as expected, departed northwards. However, it struggled to cover as little as 100 points, reaching only 0.9725 by Friday. After this, the strength of the bulls dried up, and the pair slipped to 0.9690.

***
As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of analysts from a number of banks and broker companies, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. On one hand, last week the pair reached a powerful support level of 1.1165, which was followed by a small rebound. This, however, begs the question of whether this rebound represents 1) a shift of a bearish trend to a bullish one, or 2) a mere correction after which the pair's downward movement will continue.
Both trend indicators and the oscillators on D1 have taken a neutral stance. As for the graphical analysis on H4, it insists the pair will rise and return to the 1.1240-1.1285 zone.
Experts have taken a diametrically opposite position: 70% of them, supported by graphical analysis on D1, believe that the pair will continue moving southwards, dropping first to the 1.1000-1.1100 zone and then to 1.0825.
And, of course, we mustn’t forget that on Wednesday, 14 June, the US Federal Reserve is expected to decide on the interest rate. The forecasts do not anticipate anything extraordinary to happen, but if a rate increase (or even a hint at a future increase) occurs, one should expect a stormy market reaction which may make the dollar seriously strengthen its position;

- As for the future of GBP/USD, technical analysis is still sidelined by politics and what will happen in the UK’s power structures in the coming days.
As for the graphical analysis on D1, it predicts an initial growth to 1.2980 and then a drop first to 1.2770 and then to 1.2650. Indicators and almost 85% of analysts agree with this, believing that by mid-summer the pair should drop to 1.2550;

- USD/JPY. This week, experts, graphical analysis and indicators demonstrate extraordinary unanimity. For the next few days, they expect a sideways trend in the 110.25-111.00 range. In the longer term, the pair is expected to rise to 112.00. It should be noted that in the medium term, more and more people are expecting the pair to grow. Currently, only 50% of analysts support a short term bullish scenario, whilst in the medium term this number already exceeds 75%.
An alternative, bearish point of view is represented by a mere 25% of experts who point to a local minimum in the 109.00 zone. Just one analyst believes the pair will fall to the April low at 108.00;

- The last pair of our review is USD/CHF. Graphical analysis shows the continuation of its movement in the descending channel that had started in the beginning of 2017. This channel is clearly visible on the D1 and W1 charts. According to this forecast, the pair has now launched off the lower border of the channel (0.9610) and started an upward movement to its upper limit (0.9910). The main resistance on this path is 0.9810. Almost 85% of analysts agree with this. However, as usual, the pair’s behavior is largely dependent on what happens with EUR/USD;

To conclude the forecast, we believe it worthwhile to recall that, in addition to the aforementioned US Fed rate decision on 14 June, similar decisions of the Bank of Switzerland and the Bank of England are expected on Thursday, 15 June and the Bank of Japan on Friday 16, June.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Post  NordFX Sage on Sun Jun 18, 2017 3:43 am

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 19 - 23 June 2017

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- It had been clear that the main moves for EUR/USD would begin on Wednesday 14 June, when the US Federal Reserve would officially announce a rate increase. Everyone was ready for this. What no one was expecting though was the sharp drop of the dollar 5.5 hours before this event. Taking advantage of negative data on the US consumer market, large speculators pulled the pair up by 100 points. As a result, the Fed's statement could only return it to the original value of 1.1200. However, the "bears" did not calm down there, and on Friday the pair reached the local bottom at 1.1130, after which it again returned to where it started the week: namely in the 1.1200 zone;

- As for GBP/USD, as expected, technical analysis proved useless last week. The pair made variously directed fluctuations with an amplitude of 100-150 points for the whole week, which were caused both by political factors and by the rate decisions of the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. Even though the latter left rates unchanged at 0.25%, it should be noted that instead of the expected seven members of the Monetary Policy Committee, only five voted for this decision. Three, wanting to stop the pound falling (or, perhaps, fearing the appearance of another George Soros), spoke in favor of raising the rate. We can infer from this that it is possible that the financial policy of Great Britain will face serious changes soon, with these changes being related primarily to the capital outflow and the terms for the country's withdrawal from the EU;

- USD/JPY. We can say, albeit rather liberally, that the forecast for this pair turned out to be correct. Recall that at the beginning of the week we expected the pair to move in a sideways trend in the range of 110.25-111.00 the range turned out to be 110.15-110.50). As a local minimum, experts had indicated 109.00 (the pair dropped to the level of 108.80), and the height of 112.00 was named as the maximum (the pair reached 111.40). As for the results of the week, it ended at the medium-term Pivot Point 110.85, along which the pair has been moving since mid-May;

- USD/CHF. As expected, the pair carefully copied all movements of the EUR/USD during the entire week, although it did this with less volatility. Thus, whilst the maximum fluctuation range of the euro/dollar was 165 points, for the Swiss franc it did not exceed 130.

***
As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of analysts from several banks and broker companies, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The only ones who took a neutral position this week were trend indicators: their votes on H4 and D1 were split approximately 50/50. As for the oscillators and graphical analysis, almost all of them point southwards. Almost 75% of experts agree with this view of events, considering that the pair will first fall to the support at 1.1100, and in the medium term even lower into the 1.0800-1.0900 zone. 1.1300 is indicated as the main resistance;

- As for the future of the GBP/USD, there is no unanimity among the indicators. H4, trend indicators, oscillators and graphical analysis all insist on buying the pair; D1 indicators suggest selling. In general, a fairly wide side corridor appears within the boundaries of 1.2580-1.2970. The picture among analysts, though, is quite different: the overwhelming majority of them (70%) have sided with the "bears", believing that the nearest target for the pair will be the 1.2600-1.2700 zone. The next target is 1.2400. The voices of the bulls’ supporters this week are very weak, and they all point to the May maximum at 1.3050;

- USD/JPY. 90% of experts believe that the uptrend for this pair is not yet complete, and it should necessarily try to break through resistance at 112.00. Graphical analysis on H4, as well as about 70% of indicators, agree with such developments. However, it should be noted that almost a quarter of oscillators indicate this pair is overbought. The main support in case of a fall is in the 109.00 zone;

- The last pair of our review is USD/CHF. Here, almost all indicators have turned green. Recall that, having fought off the lower border (0.9610) of the medium-term descending channel, which began at the very beginning of 2017, the pair started approaching the center. Now almost 80% of analysts and almost the same proportion of technical analysis instruments expect its further growth. The nearest resistance is 0.9810, the upper limit of the channel is 0.9910. However, almost 90% of experts do not exclude that the pair will not stop at this height and will soon overcome 1.0000.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Post  NordFX Sage on Sat Jun 24, 2017 11:59 am

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 26 - 30 June 2017

First, a review of last week’s forecast: the holiday season is approaching, which may be the cause of the diminishing stream of significant economic events. This necessarily affects the volatility of the major currency pairs, which have come close to the targets indicated by analysts, without having successfully overcome them.

- Thus, last week, the maximum range of the EUR/USD fluctuations hardly exceeded 90 points. Recall that 75% of our experts had assumed that the pair should descend to the support at 1.1100. Allowing for the standard backlash, that was what happened: the week's low was fixed at 1.1118. However, the bears' strength then dried up, and the bulls returned the pair to the same place from where it had started the five-day period;

- Regarding the GBP/USD, recall that 70% of analysts had voted for the fall of the pair, whilst technical analysis had determined 1.2580 as the local minimum. This forecast turned out to be correct, and by the middle of the week the pair had actually fallen to 1.2587. Then, just as in the case of EUR/USD, the trend reversed and the pair retreated north, returning to Pivot Point of the last two weeks in the 1.2715 zone;

- The USD/JPY. The basic forecast, supported by 90% of experts, graphical analysis and 70% of indicators, had suggested that the pair would certainly try to break through the 112.00 resistance. This is what happened in reality: at the very beginning of the week’s session, the pair rushed upwards and, flying up 100 points, quickly reached 111.77. It then rolled back a bit, after which it tried to conquer the treasured height three times. However, after all these attempts were exhausted, the pair retreated downwards by 50 points and finished the week at 111.27;

- However, the forecasts for the future of USD/CHF have not been fulfilled. The pair’s uptrend was expected to continue, which would have carried it to at least the resistance of 0.9810. However, the pair stayed in the side channel of the last five weeks - 0.9620-0.9770 - and completed the week session near its central line in the 0.9695 zone.

***
As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of analysts from a number of banks and broker companies, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. As for indicators, about 90% of them look to the north on H4. But with the transition to a larger D1 time frame, the forecast changes to neutral. Moreover, almost a quarter of the oscillators already show that this pair is overbought, thereby recommends to sell. The graphical analysis on D1 and about 70% of analysts also agree with this, pointing to a possible fall of the pair first to 1.1100, and then even lower to the 1.0850-1.0960 area.
Speaking about the very near future, on Monday 26 June, the release of positive data on the US consumer market is expected, which may help strengthen the dollar. However, it may take the pair anything from one to several weeks to achieve these goals.
An alternative point of view sees the growth of the pair first to the resistance of 1.1285, and in the event of a breakthrough, even higher, bringing it to the 1.1400 region. However, in the medium term this forecast is supported by less than 10% of experts;

- As for the future of GBP/USD, here, too, most analysts are set to sell this pair. But a majority as obvious as the one for EUR/USD is nowhere to be seen: the vote is split 55% / 45%. Trend indicators and oscillators on D1 are on the side of the majority, whilst their "colleagues" on H4 as well as graphical analysis on both H4 and D1 side with the minority.
The nearest target for the bulls is 1.2815, the medium-term targets are 1.2920, 1.2975 and 1.3045. As for the bears, they will try to drop the pair first to the 1.2585-1.2630 region, before carrying it down by another ‘echelon’ to the 1.2365-1.2585 area;

- USD/JPY. The indicators on H4 are much more confident here than on D1. The former believe that the pair will once again try to take the height of 112.00, and this attempt should be crowned with success. Graphic analysis and about 60% of experts agree with this development. At the same time, graphical analysis on D1 indicates that after the pair reaches 112.15, it may roll back to 109.65-110.00;

- and the last pair of our review is the USD/CHF. If last week almost all the indicators were painted green, now many of them have changed to red, insisting that the pair will necessarily test the local minimum of 0.9610 again.
70% of experts, graphical analysis and about half of oscillators on D1 strongly disagree with this forecast. Based on the fact that the pair is oversold, they continue to insist on it moving to the upper boundary of the medium-term downtrend channel at 0.9910, which started early in 2017. The nearest resistance is 0.9810.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Post  NordFX Sage on Sat Jul 01, 2017 1:27 pm

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 03 - 07 July 2017

To begin with, a few words about the forecast for the previous week, which was a week full of speeches by senior Central Bankers globally. Forex trends were influenced by the ECB head Mario Draghi, as well as his colleagues from the Bank of England Mark Carney and Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda. It goes without saying that the week would not be complete without the statements of the head of the US Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen.

- EUR / USD. The past week clearly showed that the opinion of the majority is not necessarily correct. Recall that, even though about 90% indicators on H4 voted for the growth of the pair, this forecast was supported by only about 10% of analysts. In their opinion, the pair had to first rise to the resistance at 1.1285, and then even higher to 1.1400. This is what happened - the pair was firmly entrenched in the zone 1.1390-1.1445 by the end of the five-day period;

- As for GBP/USD, 45% of analysts voted for its growth, which was supported by indicators on H4 and graphical analysis on H4 and D1. The bulls identified 1.2815, 1.2920, 1.2975 and 1.3045 as target levels. Backed by "hawkish" statements by Mark Carney about a possible increase in interest rates on the British pound, the pair took the first three heights with ease and came close to the fourth, finishing the week at 1.3025;

- USD/JPY. Here the main forecast was that the pair would once again try attempt to take the height of 112.00, and that this attempt would prove fruitful. This forecast turned out to be 100% true: the pair not only managed to reach this height, but also exceed it by almost 100 points. It then rolled back to finish at 112.40;

- The bears (30% of all forecasters), insisted that USD/CHF should test the local minimum of 0.9610 again. And indeed, after some hesitation, the pair went southwards, mirroring the movements of EUR/USD. On Wednesday, it reached this support, broke through it and spent the rest of the week in the side channel 0.9550-0.9600.

***
As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of analysts from a number of banks and broker companies, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. It should be noted that, because of a powerful breakthrough last week, the pair reached the upper boundary of the side channel it had been moving in for over two years, ever since the winter of 2015. Perhaps that is why the experts are rather confused, being divided into approximately three equal camps: 40% favor the pair’s growth, 35% support its fall, and the remaining believe in a sideways trend.
If we look at the graph of W1, we can see that the pair escaped the limits of the said channel for a short period of time on two occasions: in August 2015 and in May 2016, reaching 1.1715 in the first case, and 1.1615 in the latter. So, from the point of view of graphical analysis, there is still potential for growth of the pair. However, a whole quarter of the oscillators on D1 already signal that the pair is overbought.
Do not forget that this week we are expecting a sufficiently large amount of data on the US economy to be published, a lot of which, according to forecasts, is positive for the dollar. For example, it is expected that one of the most important indicators, NFP (the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector) may increase from 138K to 170-180K, which will provide significant support to the bears, and they will be able to drop the pair below the level of 1.1300;

- GBP/USD. Here, as in the case of the EUR/USD, both graphical analysis and the absolute majority of trend indicators and oscillators point northwards, believing that the pair should rise to at least 1.3120-1.3180, and then, possibly, by another 200 points. However, considering that the pair is now close to a very strong support/resistance level and is also approaching the 2017 high, a rebound is certainly plausible. In this case, the targets levels would be 1.2815 and 1.2760.
As for the opinion of analysts, 55% of them expect the pair to fall within the next few days, whilst 90% believe it will fall in the medium term;

- USD/JPY. Here, 40% of experts and almost 100% of indicators voted for the growth of the pair. The resistance levels are 113.10, 113.60 and 114.35. An alternative point of view is supported by 60% of analysts and only one indicator. The nearest support levels are 111.80, 110.80 and 110.25. Another possibility, suggested by graphical analysis on H4, has the pair grow to 113.10 and then fall to 112.00;

- The last pair of our review is USD/CHF. Next week, 75% of experts and a similar proportion of indicators expect the pair to fall to the zone of 1.9465-1.9520. The remaining analysts expect the pair to rise to 0.9650. And, as in the previous case, the alternative case is proposed by graphical analysis, which suggests a back and forth dancer in the lateral channel of 0.9520-0.9650. When it comes to the more distant future, almost 80% of experts expect the pair to return to the zone of 0.9860-1.010 in August.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Post  NordFX Sage on Sun Jul 09, 2017 7:54 am

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 10 - 14 July 2017

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. As a result of a powerful breakthrough in late June, the pair reached the upper boundary of the side channel in which it has been moving for more than two years since the winter of 2015. It was this that gave reason to expect the pair to fall. Recall that this scenario was supported by 35% of experts and the quarter of the oscillators who signaled it was overbought. The level 1.1300 was named as the local minimum, and the pair reached it on Wednesday (1.1312). Having fulfilled this task ahead of schedule, it returned to the upper border of the channel and finished the week near 1.1400;

- As for GBP/USD, having approached the high of 2017, it reached critical values in late June, just like to EUR/USD. That is why 55% of analysts voted for its decline, identifying the support at 1.2815 as the target. As early as Monday the trend indeed made a reversal downwards, but the low point, which the pair managed to reach by Friday, was 50 points higher at 1.2865;

- USD/JPY. Here, 40% of experts and almost 100% of indicators voted for the growth of the pair. The level 114.35 was named as the top point. This forecast came true by 100%, and the pair climbed more than 200 points by the end of the week’s session, reaching 114.20;

- The most accurate forecast for USD/CHF was given by graphical analysis, which traced its back and forth motion in the lateral channel 0.9520-0.9650. That's exactly what happened: at first the pair rose to the upper border of the channel. Then, the bulls attempted to break it, but their strength was exhausted at 0.9685 and the pair turned southwards, ending the week near the strong support / resistance zone at 0.9635.

***
As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of analysts from a number of banks and brokerages, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. This time, both experts and technical analysis voted overwhelmingly for the growth of the pair. 70% of analysts, graphical analysis on H4 and almost 100% of indicators agree with this scenario. In their opinion, the pair will try to break through the horizon 1.1500 and, if this attempt proves successful, rush even higher to the 2016 high at 1.1620.
The alternative forecast can hardly be called alternative, since it's not about the fall of the pair, but about its lateral movement within the boundaries of 1.1300-1.1445. The remaining 30% of experts, graphical analysis on D1 and only one oscillator, indicating that the pair is slightly overbought, agree with this.
It should also be noted that, despite the positive mood for the coming days, the medium-term outlook for the pair remains negative. It is supported by almost 70% of analysts. In addition, we should pay attention to the speech of the head of the Fed, Janet Yellen on Thursday, July 13, and data on the US consumer market, which are expected to be published on Friday July 14.

- GBP/USD. Here, unlike the case of EUR/USD, the indicators are divided almost equally. However, both trend indicators and oscillators on D1 show a slight bullish advantage. 65% of analysts also look northwards, supported by graphical analysis. They all point to the level of 1.3050 as a target. The next resistance is 50 points higher at 1.3100. Only 35% of experts side with the bears. However, if we talk about the forecast for the second half of the summer, almost 70% of these experts think that the pair should return to the zone of 1.2500;

- USD/JPY. Recall that the pair has been trying to reach the May maximum at level 1.1435 for more than a month now. And it is possible that this week it will once again attempt to rise to said level and even go beyond it to 1.1500. 60% of experts and most of the indicators agree with this scenario.
The remaining part of the analysts, as well as graphical analysis on H4, believe that the forces of the bulls have already dried up, and the pair is expected to sharply descend to the zone of 111.00-111.75. A third of the oscillators supports this scenario, signaling the pair is overbought.
As for the medium-term perspective, more than 80% of experts expect a fall;

- the last pair of our review is USD/CHF. Here, the opinion of analysts is also radically changing when moving from the weekly forecast to the medium-term forecast. For the next week, 100% (!) of experts speak about the descent of the pair to 0.9520-0.9560. However, once that happens, 60% of them maintain that the pair should rise above the horizon of 0.9800.
A slightly different scenario is offered by graphical analysis on D1: it suggests an initial growth of the pair to 0.9735, and then its fall into the 0.9480-0.9520 zone.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Post  NordFX Sage on Sun Jul 16, 2017 4:06 am

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 17 - 21 July 2017

To begin with, a few words about the forecast for the previous week, which ended up being almost 100% correct for EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY.

- Recall that the overwhelming majority (70%) of experts and almost 100% of indicators voted for the growth of the EUR/USD. 1.1500 was named the main target. As for the remaining analysts, they thought lateral movement would dominate last week.
The pair worked on both scenarios. First, as predicted, leaning on the support of 1.1380, it rushed up and reached the height of 1.1490 on Wednesday. Then it rolled back to the support zone, turned around and rushed up again, finishing the five-day period in the zone of 1.1470;

- As for GBP/USD, the odds here, as in the case of the EUR/USD, were on the bulls' side. 65% of analysts, graphical analysis, as well as most indicators on D1, had voted for the movement of the pair to the north. In their opinion, the pair was supposed first to rise to the resistance at 1.3050, and then to the height of 1.3100, which was recorded at the very end of the weekly trading session;

- USD/JPY. The pair has been striving north for more than a month, trying to reach the May high at 1.1435. Most experts believed that last week it would manage to do it. At the same time, a third of the indicators signaled that the bulls' strength had already dried up, and this gave grounds to talk about an imminent fall of the pair.
That's exactly what happened: having hardly reached 1.1450, the pair immediately turned and sharply collapsed, groping the local bottom at 112.25 on Friday;

- The most accurate forecast for USD/CHF was given by graphical analysis, which was drawing a back-and-forth movement in the side channel for the second week in a row. However, the range of oscillations of the pair turned out to be narrower than expected (0.9520-0.9735), and it stayed within 0.9600-0.9700.

***
As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of analysts from a number of banks and brokerages, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Almost 100% of indicators believe that the upward trend of the pair will continue. And as for the experts, only 55% of them are bullish. This is because the pair has reached the upper boundary of its long-term lateral channel, where it has been moving since January 2015. The W1 chart clearly shows that if the pair breaks through the 1.1500 level, its next target will be the 2016 high: 1.1615.
An alternative scenario involves the pair being pulled downwards. In this case, 1.1380 and 1.1300 will be support levels. 45% of analysts and graphical analysis on D1 agree with this version.
In the coming week, we expect the publication of data on euro area consumer market on Monday, July 17 and the ECB's decision on the interest rate on Thursday, July 20. However, these events will likely not have a strong impact on the EUR/USD exchange rate.
As for the medium-term outlook, it remains negative, and 75% of analysts expect the pair to fall to 1.1100-1.1200 during the summer;

- GBP/USD. Graphical analysis on H4, 100% of trend indicators, 2/3 oscillators and only 1/3 of analysts believe that the pair still has enough strength to rise to 1.3150 or even 1.3200. On the other hand, an overwhelming majority of experts, supported by one third of oscillators, are confident that the upward impulse of the pair has dried up: judging by this view, the pair can now be expected to decline first to 1.3000, and then 175-200 points lower. After that, according to the readings of graphical analysis on D1, the pair will move in the lateral channel 1.2800-1.3025 for a month;

- If, speaking of the future of USD/JPY, most of the indicators on H4 look to the south, their eyes turn westwards on D1. In other words, they have taken a neutral position. But almost 70% of experts are sure that the pair will try to re-test the level of 114.50 and, in case of its breakthrough, will rush to this February high at the height of 115.50.
As for the small umber of supporters of the pair's decline, they think it can drop to the zone of 110.50-111.00.
The decision of the Bank of Japan on interest rates, which will be published on July 20, is unlikely to surprise the financial markets, and they are likely to react to it quite calmly;

- and the last pair of our review is USD/CHF. In this case, indicators do not provide any clear forecast. However, most analysts (85%) still expect the pair to fall at least to the zone of 0.9500-0.9550.
A slightly different scenario is offered by graphical analysis on D1: an initial growth of the pair to the resistance of 0.9700-0.9725, and only then its fall into the designated zone.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Post  NordFX Sage on Sun Jul 23, 2017 8:24 am

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 24 - 28 July 2017

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- The main view on EUR/USD was that it would break through1.1500 and grow to the 2016 high at 1.1615. The next target would then be the maximum of August 2015: 1.1715. The main impetus for the pair's upswing was given by the head of the ECB Mario Draghi, who said on Thursday that the euro zone stimulus program (QE) will not end and will remain unchanged. Against the background of these comments, the euro's exchange rate against the dollar jumped by 0.5%, and the pair reached the height of 1.1680 by the end of the week session;

- As for GBP/USD, the forecast ended up being 100%. Accurate. Recall that the vast majority of experts, supported by one third of oscillators, were confident that the upward impulse of the pair had dried up, and it was expected to decline first to 1.3000, and then even lower. As a result, the pair dropped to 1.2930, then rebounded and finished the week at the level of 1.2994;

- USD/JPY. Indicators on H4 and only one third of analysts spoke about the fall of this pair last week. But it was them who turned out to be right, having predicted its decline to the level of 111.00, which became the week’s minimum.

- Predicting the future of USD/CHF, the majority of analysts (85%) insisted on it falling to at least 0.9500-0.9550, and possibly even lower. The pair obediently did so, having lost 190 points in a week and started touching a local bottom at 0.9437.

***
As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of analysts from a number of banks and brokerages, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. After an impressive upwards spurt last week, the future of this pair now looks quite ambiguous. 55% of experts, 100% of trend indicators and graphical analysis indicate the uptrend will continue. The August 2015 maximum - 1.1715 - is named as the nearest resistance, the next target is 100 points higher.
An alternative point of view is represented by 45% of experts and more than a third of oscillators on H4 and D1, indicating the pair is overbought. In their opinion, the pair should return to 1.1480-1.1580. The following events can also contribute to the strengthening of the dollar: on July 26, the Fed will provide commentary on a possible increase in interest rates before the end of the year, and on July 28 we will see the publication of annual data on US GDP;

- GBP/USD. If we try to bring together the opinions of experts and technical analysis, we can talk about the prevalence of bullish sentiment and the movement of this pair in the 1.2950-1.3120 channel. In figures, it looks like this: 50% of analysts are for the growth of the pair, the other 50% are for its fall. Trend indicators: 70% look to the north, 30% to the south. Oscillators: one third is colored red, one third is green, and the rest are neutral. As for graphical analysis, on D1 it says that, starting from the support at 1.2950, the pair will try to gain a foothold above the level of 1.3100 and, if successful, rush to the resistance at 1.3280. Otherwise, it is expected to return to around 1.2950;

- The medium-term outlook for USD/JPY indicates that it should return to the height of 114.50. But it's too early to talk about the reversal of the trend, and the pair will continue to descend in the coming week. 65% of analysts agree with this point of view, as well as about 80% of indicators. At the same time, a quarter of the oscillators are already signaling that the pair is oversold. The main support levels are 110.85, 110.25 and 109.00;

- The last pair of our review is USD/CHF. 100% of experts, 100% of trend indicators, 75% of oscillators and graphical analysis on H4 and D1 expect the continuation of the downtrend and fall of the pair first to 0.9400, and then 100 points lower. However, one should bear in mind that, as in the case of USD/JPY, a quarter of the oscillators already indicate the pair is oversold, so it is impossible to exclude the correction to the north. The nearest resistance is at the level of 0.9525, the next one is 0.9560.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Post  NordFX Sage on Sun Jul 30, 2017 5:12 am

Forex forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for July 31 - August 4, 2017

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. The upward trend of the pair, which began on New Year's Eve 2017 and which marks a steady fall in the US dollar, was continued last week. Thanks to growing GDP, the US currency had a chance, at least temporarily, to change the situation. However, the growth of the German consumer market turned out to be more impressive, and the pair went up by 100 points, ending the five-day period at 1.1750. Thus, our basic forecast, supported by 55% of experts, graphical analysis and 100% of trend indicators, was justified;
- The US dollar was also falling against the British currency. Our forecast for the GBP/USD spoke of the predominance of bullish sentiment and the desire of the pair to gain a foothold above the level of 1.3100. 1.3120 was identified as a local target and the pair completed the weekly session just above it;

- USD/JPY. Most analysts (65%) and about 80% of the indicators said that the pair would continue to move down. However, what happened, can hardly be called a proper fall: it fell by only 40 points as the result of the week. And, before that, in the first half of the week the pair managed to rise by 120 points, due to which the question of overselling, which was signaled by the oscillators, was closed;

- Practice shows that the USD/CHF rate very often mirrors the movement of the EUR/USD. Last week, though, the opposite happened. At a time when the dollar was falling against other major currencies, it rose sharply (by more than 250 points) against the Swiss franc. The reason was the stop orders issued by major Japanese traders and investment banks, which made the pair return to a strong medium-term support/resistance level in the 0.9700 area;

***
As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of analysts from a number of banks and brokerages, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Last week, the pair exceeded the August 2015 maximum,1.1715, and rushed to the next target: the highest point of all 2015,1.1870. 60% of experts agree that it will be able to reach it in the near future. The rest believe that the pair is facing a downwards correction: first to 1.1615, and then to the support line of the upward four-month channel near 1.1570. Apart from the experts, graphical analysis on H4 and D1 and a quarter of oscillators agree with such a development of events, with the latter signaling that the pair is overbought.
It should be noted that 80% of experts believe the pair will fall to 1.1112-1.1300 in the medium term;

- GBP/USD. About 70% of analysts, supported by 100% of trend indicators and the vast majority of oscillators, believe that the upward momentum for this pair has not yet dried up, and it will strive to reach the upper limit of last year's summer corridor at 1.3370. The nearest resistance in the zone is 1.3200-1.3225. Support is at the level of 1.3050.
The remaining 30% of experts, supported by graphical analysis on H4 and D1 and just one oscillator, believe that the pair will not be able to rise above the 1.3160 horizon, and will return first to support 1.3050, and then, possibly, drop another 50 points.
The medium-term forecast for the pair remains the same – southwards movement to 1.2700-1.2800. 75% of analysts agree with this development of events;

- 65% of experts expect that USD/JPY should still break through the support of 110.60 and fall into the 109.00-110.60 range. However, 20% of the oscillators once again signal that the pair is oversold, and, together with 35% of analysts, talk about a possible return to 112.20. The next resistance is 112.85, then 113.55;

- USD/CHF. After an impressive upwards spurt last week, the opinions of experts are divided almost evenly: 5% side with bears, 45% are on the side of bulls. As for indicators, naturally, the vast majority of them are colored green. However, even here 20% of the oscillators are in the oversold zone. Graphical analysis offers a compromise option at D1: first a decline to the zone of 0.9550, and then growth to 0.9700, and finally 0.9770.

- Summarizing the weekly review, it is worth recalling that the upcoming week will be filled with many events that traditionally attract the attention of currency traders. The beginning of the week from Monday to Wednesday will be devoted, mainly, to the data from the Eurozone. Thursday, 3rd August will be marked by a meeting of the Bank of England, and here the distribution of votes regarding interest rate changes will be of great interest. Recall that the number of supporters of rate increases is growing, and therefore certain surprises cannot be ruled out. And finally, at the very end of the week - on Friday, 4 August - US employment data (NFP) will be published, and judging by the forecasts (187K compared to 222K in June), they could apply negative pressure to the dollar.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Post  NordFX Sage on Sun Aug 06, 2017 5:10 am

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for August 7 - 11, 2017

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- 60% of experts called the 2015 maximum at the height of 1.1870 as the nearest target for EUR/USD, the pair reached it on Wednesday. As for a longer-term forecast, 80% of specialists expected the trend to reverse to the south and the pair to start falling. That is what happened on Friday, thanks to the positive data from the US labor market. The NFP indicator rose to 209K instead of the expected 187K, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.3% in July. Taking advantage of this occasion, the bears could drop the pair by 150 points, and it returned to the values of the beginning of the week;

- The dollar strengthened its position to a certain extent in relation to the British currency as well. At the beginning of the week, as predicted by 70% of analysts and the clear majority of indicators, the pair showed growth, having reached the height of 1.3265. But then, thanks to the Bank of England and the data from the United States that we already mentioned, the dollar gained nearly 250 points from the British pound, returning to the medium-term support/resistance level in the zone of 1.3030;

- The basic forecast for the USD/JPY claimed that the pair should finally break through the horizon of 110.60 and go one level below. This forecast came true by 100%, and the level of 110.60 turned from support into Pivot Point of the past two weeks;

- USD/CHF. Recall that, after an impressive breakthrough of this pair up, the opinions of experts were divided almost equally - 55% sided with bears, 45% were on the side of bulls. As for graphical analysis, it was it that, having suggested a compromise option - first the pair's decline, and then its growth to the height of 0.9770, - was the closest thing to reality - having declined to 0.9630, the pair reversed and, having overcome resistance 0.9700, reached the height of 0.9763 on Friday.

***
As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of analysts from a number of banks and broker companies, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. After the fall of the pair last Friday, about half of oscillators and trend indicators on H4 turned red, but the green still dominates on D1, strongly recommending to buy. 75% of experts are thinking of the pair's growth, calling the zone 1.1900-1.2000 as the target. Another 15% of analysts speak of a sideways trend, and only 10% of them turn their eyes to the south. Graphical analysis on H4 and D1 shows solidarity with this bearish minority as well. The support levels in this case are 1.1670, 1.1400 and 1.1200;

- GBP/USD. The overwhelming majority of analysts (75%) with the support of graphical analysis and indicators on D1, speak about the sideways movement of the pair within the limits of the previous week - from 1.3000 to 1.3270. A third of the oscillators on H4 agree with this scenario, signaling the pair is oversold. As for the remaining indicators, they side with those 25% of experts who expect the continuation of the downtrend, believing that the pair will first fall to support 1.2950, and then even lower - to the horizon 1.2810;

- the D1 chart clearly shows that the USD/JPY is once again descending from the upper border of the mid-term side corridor (114.50) to its lower border in the zone 108.10-108.80. And to reach it, the pair must go about 200 points to the south. That is why almost 80% of experts side with the bears. The remaining 20% of analysts, with the support of graphical analysis on H4, do not exclude a correction upwards, as a result of which the pair can rise to the zone of 111.30-111.75;

- Bearish sentiment prevails in the forecasts for USD/CHF as well. 65% of experts, supported by graphical analysis on D1 and a quarter of oscillators, expect the pair to fall to the level of 0.9600, and then another 100 points lower. An alternative point of view is represented by 35% of analysts and the overwhelming majority of indicators, according to which the pair will be able to gain a foothold above the 0.9765 mark, then rush to resistance 0.9900.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Post  NordFX Sage on Sun Aug 13, 2017 12:43 pm

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for August 14 - 18, 2017

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. It was not possible to have a more or less homogeneous forecast for this pair in the previous week. Whilst most experts looked to the north, graphical analysis unambiguously pointed to the south, naming 1.1670 as the nearest support level. Opinions of indicators were also divided: about half of the oscillators and trend indicators on H4 turned red, but on D1, the green continued to dominate. Thus, this discord was justified: at the beginning of the week, the pair grew a little, then it fell, reaching the local bottom at 1.1688, and went up again to the Pivot Point of the last two weeks in the 1.1820-1.1840 zone;

- GBP/USD. The overwhelming majority of analysts (75%), supported by graphical analysis and indicators on D1, spoke about the sideways movement of the pair. Indeed, the pair stayed in a horizontal trend for the whole week, although not exactly in the range where they had expected, the actual range being one level below. Just such a fall constituted what had been predicted by the remaining 25% of experts: the pair first descended to the horizon 1.2950 and only then moved to the east;

- The main forecast for USD/JPY claimed that the pair should go southwards about 200 points and reach the lower boundary of the mid-term side corridor in the 108.10-108.80 zone. This forecast turned out to be 100% true, and the pair, having descended exactly 200 points, fixed the week minimum at the level of 108.73;

- The forecast for USD/CHF also fully came true. Recall that 35% of analysts and the vast majority of indicators indicated that the pair would attempt to gain a foothold above the level of 0.9765. On Tuesday, the pair broke through this resistance, after which it fell, just as most experts had predicted, reaching support at 0.9600 by the end of the week's session.

***
As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of analysts from a number of banks and brokerages, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Like last week, the views of the majority of experts (65%) are turned to the north. Supported by graphical analysis and 80% of indicators, they expect the pair to grow to 1.1900-1.2000. Only 35% of analysts expect the pair to fall. However, graphical analysis and a number of oscillators on D1 already side with them, they expect the pair to fall to the level of 1.1685, and then 100 points lower;

- GBP/USD. If you combine the opinions of analysts and technical analysis, you can still talk about a sideways trend here. The opinions of experts were divided 45% to 55% in favor of growth. Trend indicators on H4 are weighed at 60% in favour of growth, whilst on D1, they are strictly neutral. Oscillators on H4 are divided as follows: 50% suggest purchasing, 20% suggest selling, 30% are neutral; on D1, as many as 70% recommend selling. As for graphical analysis, on D1, it shows a side channel in the range 1.2890-1.3125.
In the medium term, the picture is somewhat different: here over 65% of experts vote for the fall of the pair to the zone of 1.2590-1.2810;

- USD/JPY. Here, the vast majority of experts (85%) expect that the pair will continue its decline, aiming to reach the low of April 2017 at 108.12, after which it is expected to rebound to the horizon of 110.00. Bearish sentiment is also supported by 100% of the trend indicators. However, a quarter of oscillators on H4 and D1 give signals that the pair is oversold. Also, 15% of analysts and graphical analysis on H4 do not exclude a possible correction.
If we talk about the medium-term analysis, 70% of experts here expect the pair to return to the upper border (114.50) of the side corridor, in which the pair is moving starting from this winter;

- The last pair of our review is USD/CHF. Here, bearish sentiment dominates. 60% of experts, supported by graphical analysis and the overwhelming majority of indicators, expect the pair to fall to the zone of 0.9500-0.9550. As for the alternative point of view, which is expressed by the remaining 40% of analysts, the pair is expected to rise to the resistance at 0.9700, and, in case of its breakdown, by another 70 points. The 10% of oscillators who are giving signals that this pair is oversold can be considered bull supporters.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Post  NordFX Sage on Sun Aug 20, 2017 6:02 am

NordFX Clients Get the Opportunity to Trade CryptoCurrencies

Dear Clients! We are glad to offer you one more opportunity to make profit in the financial markets. The list of trading instruments that we offer has been enriched with three cryptocurrency pairs, BTCUSD, LTCUSD and ETHUSD, which are traded at the special CRYPTO account.

Even though such an instrument as virtual digital currencies has appeared quite recently, it is rapidly gaining popularity among traders. This is due, in the first place, to their unusually high volatility and, as a result, the potential profitability of transactions. Suffice to say that eight years ago, 1 Bitcoin was quoted at $ 0.001, and in August 2017, it exceeded $ 4000.

In this respect, it has been decided to expand the line of trading accounts, adding a new CRYPTO account, which allows to carry out transactions on the MetaTrader 4 platform with three best-known cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin (BTC), Litecoin (LTC) and ETHERIUM (ETH).

You can see the trading terms on the account page https://nordfx.com/trading_account_crypto.html. Although they are some of the most competitive in the market, we strongly advise our clients to carefully study specific features of the trade in cryptocurrency pairs, and in case you use expert advisers, to test and configure them thoroughly.
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Post  NordFX Sage on Sun Aug 20, 2017 6:03 am

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for August 21 - 25, 2017

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. Only 35% of experts expected the pair to fall. However, graphical analysis and a number of oscillators on D1 sided with them. The support at 1.1685 was named as the nearest goal: it was reached by the pair by mid Tuesday. After that, the pair made several more attempts to break through this level, and it even managed to drop 25 points. This was not a true breakthrough, however, and the pair returned to the Pivot Point of the last two weeks in the 1.1755 zone. Thus, the week’s decline was only about 70 points;

- GBP/USD. 45% of analysts voted for the fall of this pair last week. As for the medium term, 65% of them sided with the bears. The pair itself went ahead of the curve and by Tuesday evening it lost 170 points. There, the bears' forces dried up, and it initiated a lateral movement along the 1.2875 Pivot Point, near which it completed the weekly session;

- Oscillators on H4 and D1 warned that USD/JPY was oversold. Graphical analysis also expected a correction. The rebound did indeed happen: the pair reached the height of 110.94 by the middle of the week, after which it turned sharply and returned to the values of the beginning of the week. As a result, the week’s chart looks like an isosceles triangle, at the base of which the support zone 108.90-109.20 is located;

- A similar triangle can be seen on the USD/CHF chart. As with the case of USD/JPY, a number of oscillators were giving signals that the pair was oversold, and one of the scenarios assumed its rise to resistance 0.9700, and in the event of its breakdown, another 70 points higher. That's exactly what happened: the pair reached 0.9765, and then left southwards to finish the week near a strong support/resistance zone at 0.9650, where it first visited back in March 2008.

***
As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of analysts from a number of banks and brokerages, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Like last week, the views of most experts (60%) face northwards, with the remaining 40% voting for the fall of the pair. Approximately the same alignment of forces can be observed with indicators on both H4 and D1. The support levels are 1.1685, 1.1600 and 1.1475. The resistance levels are 1.1845, 1.1910, 1.2010. As for the graphical analysis on D1, according to its readings, the pair will first move in the descending channel, and then, having reached the bottom at the level of 1.1610, it will turn and will go north again;

- Speaking about the future of the pair GBP/USD pair, 55% of analysts, supported by the absolute majority of indicators (80%), as well as graphical analysis on D1, vote for its fall to 1.2760. After that, the pair should change the trend to an ascending one.
An alternative point of view is shared by 45% of experts and graphical analysis on H4. In their opinion, the pair will go up from the very beginning of the week, basing on the support of 1.2840 The nearest targets are 1.2950 1.3025 and 1.3125;

- As for the USD/JPY, we can expect with a high degree of probability that, before reaching the April 2017 low (108.12), the pair, as was the case in the previous two cycles, will stay in the sideways trend for a while, fluctuating in the range 108.80-110.30. Approximately 40% of analysts and graphical analysis on H4 agree with this version. As for the indicators, 95% of them, as well as 35% of experts, continue to insist on the rapid fall of the pair. The goal is the same, the horizon of 108.00.
The growth of the pair to the area of 112.00 and above is expected by only 25% of analysts at the moment. However, if we move to the medium-term forecast, their number increases to 75%;

- And the last pair of our review is USD/CHF. The fall of this pair to the area of 0.9440-0.9500 is still expected by 60% of experts and the overwhelming majority (about 85%) of trend indicators and oscillators. The remaining 40% of analysts, together with graphical analysis on H4 and D1, do not exclude the fall of the pair and believe that for this to happen the pair must first reach the resistance at 0.9765.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Post  NordFX Sage on Sat Aug 26, 2017 1:40 pm

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for August 28 - September 1, 2017

First, a review of last week’s forecast: thanks to this forecast, traders who took into account the main recommendations of experts and technical analysis, could receive a significant profit. So:

- EUR/USD. The basic forecast, which was sounded by the majority of experts (60%) with the support of technical analysis, spoke about the growth of this pair. And it did go north, starting from Monday. Although at first this movement was not very strong and confident, on Friday, August 28, the pair shot up sharply, reaching the height of 1.1940, supported by the speech of the Federal Reserve Head, Janet Yellen, it finished the week at the height of 1.1921 - near the central level of resistance, indicated by analysts;

- Speaking about the behavior of the pair GBP/USD, the majority of experts, supported by the absolute majority of indicators (80%), as well as graphical analysis on D1, voted for its fall to the level of 1.2760. After that, the pair should have changed the trend to an ascending one. This forecast came true by all 100%. By Thursday, the pair had fallen to the level of 1.2772, then it turned and on Friday returned to the values of the beginning of the week;

- As for the USD/JPY, it was expected that the pair would stay in the sideways trend for a while, making fluctuations in the range of 108.80-110.30. With a slight adjustment, this forecast can also be considered absolutely true - the pair spent the whole week moving to the east in the channel 108.63-109.82;

- The analysts didn't make mistakes predicting the behavior of the pair USD/CHF either. Its fall to the level of 0.9500 was expected by 60% of experts and the overwhelming majority (about 85%) of trend indicators and oscillators. As a result, the local bottom was fixed at 0.9550. And although this horizon was 50 points higher than expected, all those traders who took into account this forecast benefited for sure, as the pair's fall for the week was about 100 points.

***
As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of analysts from a number of banks and broker companies, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Although a quarter of the oscillators on H4 and D1 are already signaling that the pair is overbought, the bulk of them, supported by 100% of trend indicators and 40% of experts, still insists on continuation of the uptrend. The nearest target in this case is 1.2040, the next one is 100 points higher. As for the bears' supporters, who are the majority among the analysts (60%), they, just like the graphical analysis on D1, expect a correction of the pair. The main support is 1.1780, the next one is 1.1740, and in case of a breakdown, it is 1.1680;

- Speaking of the future of the GBP/USD, about 35% of analysts are determined to buy this pair, 45% are for sale and 20% remain neutral. A similar discord is observed in the indicators as well. Out of the trend ones on H4, 70% are looking to the north, 30% to the south; on D1, the situation is exactly the opposite. Oscillators show the same picture: on H4, 75% are colored green, 25% indicate the pair is overbought, and on D1 90% of the indicators are colored red.
In such a situation, it makes sense to pay attention to the graphical analysis. Both on H4 and D1, its forecasts converge and speak first about the growth of the pair to the area of 1.3000, and then about the reversal of the trend and the fall of the pair first to the level of 1.2810, and in case of a breakdown, to support 1.2750 or another 100 points lower;

- As for USD/JPY, most analysts (70%) still expect the pair to fall to the April 2017 low (108.12). Approximately 90% of the indicators agree with this scenario. The resistance levels are 109.85, 110.60 and 111.00, the support zone is 108.60-108.75;

- The last pair of our review is USD/CHF. It is clear that most of the indicators here look to the south, but already about 20% of the oscillators on H4 and D1 signal that this pair is oversold. 70% of experts and graphical analysis on D1 also speak about its possible growth. The targets are 0.9615, 0.9700 and 0.9765. The support levels are 1.1685, 1.1600 and 1.1475.

- And in conclusion, here are some words about the major events that can seriously affect the indications of technical analysis. Thus, on Wednesday August 30, data on inflation in the UK and the US GDP will be released. Thursday will bring news on unemployment in Germany and the state of the consumer market of the Eurozone, in general. As for September 1, as it happens on the first Friday of each month, the market is expecting the US unemployment data.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Post  NordFX Sage on Sat Sep 02, 2017 10:35 am

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 04 - 08 September 2017

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. Recall that, although a quarter of oscillators were already signaling that this pair had been overbought, the bulk of them, supported by 100% of trend indicators and 40% of experts, insisted that the pair still had enough strength to rise at the very least to 1.2040. This is indeed what it did. On Tuesday, August 29, the pair overcame 1.2000, before rising another 40 points, and then, by inertia, by another 30. Having fixed a maximum at 1.2070, it turned and rushed downwards, having lost 250 points by the last day of summer. The pair completed the first day of autumn at 1.1860;

- As for the future of GBP/USD, the camps of both experts and indicators were full of discord – some were looking northwards, some to the west, and some southwards. In this situation, we advised paying attention to the readings of graphical analysis. This advice turned out to be correct. Both on H4 and D1, its forecasts predicted an initial growth of the pair to the zone of 1.3000, followed by a reversal and a fall. This is what happened. By Tuesday, the pair had risen by almost 100 points and, after failing to reach the coveted mark, it descended. Having fixed the local bottom at 1.2850, it took another leap upwards, coming close to the goal on Friday, when it reached 1.2995. It then rolled back to the lower boundary of the 1.2950-1.3000 range;

- The forecast for USD/JPY was very brief last week. It had been noted that the majority of analysts (70%), supported by 90% of the indicators, expected the pair to fall to the lows of April 2017 at 108.12. The pair obeyed this order, if not by 100%, then by 95%, having descended to 108.26. After that, like a spring, it quickly straightened up and, having overcome 240 points, conquered the height of 110.66 on August 31;

- USD/CHF. 70% of experts, graphical analysis on D1 and about 20% of oscillators spoke about the possible growth of this pair. It was not ruled out that, before moving northwards, it could drop to the support at 0.9430. That's exactly what happened: first the pair declined by 150 points, and then, pushing away from 0.9426, it rose, ending the five-day period in the long-term support/resistance zone near 0.9650.

***
As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of analysts from a number of banks and brokerages, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. It is very difficult to give a forecast for this pair, as the opinions of analysts are divided equally, split 50%/50%. The same can be said about the indicators. The market does not expect any surprises from the ECB rate decision or from the comments of its leaders on Thursday, September 7. Therefore, focusing on the readings of graphical analysis on H4 and D1, one can expect this pair to continue its uptrend, which began as early as this January. The main support is around 111.60. Resistance is at the levels of 1.2000 and 1.2070, with the ultimate target being1.2150.
As for a longer-term forecast, almost 75% of analysts believe that the dollar will be able to regain some of its positions in the coming months, bringing the pair closer to 1.1600. Nevertheless, it is very difficult to make any concrete predictions whilst President Trump resides in the White House;

- Graphical analysis on H4 indicates a continuation of the uptrend for the pair GBP/USD. 45% of analysts and 80% of indicators agree with this. The nearest target is 1.3060, whilst the next target is 1.3115.
An alternative point of view is represented by 55% of experts and 20% of oscillators, who indicate that the pair is overbought. Graphical analysis on D1 agrees with them. According to its readings, the pair will drop first to the support of 1.2775, and only then, having beaten off from it, will depart to the height of 1.3060. In case of a break through 1.2775, the next support is 100 points lower;

- As predicted, USD/JPY continues the cyclical wave movement in the medium-term side channel in the range of 108.12-114.50. Last week, having fixed a minimum, the pair returned to the lower border of the Pivot-zone of the channel at the level of 110.25. At the same time, 55% of experts claim that before finally turning northwards, the pair will once again try to test the bottom of the channel and descend to at least 108.80;

- The last pair of our review is the USD/CHF. Here, most analysts (about 60%) expect that it will again fall to the minimum of August 29, at 0.9426. This development is supported by graphical analysis and more than half of the oscillators on D1, the readings of which indicate that this pair is overbought. The main resistance is in the 0.9700-0.9725 zone; the next one is at 0.9770.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Post  Stan NordFX on Mon Sep 11, 2017 3:59 am

Dear Clients,

Starting from September 4, 2017  it will become even more convenient to carry out transactions with cryptocurrencies. In addition to the CRYPTO account, trading with BTCUSD, LTCUSD and ETHUSD pairs is now available in the Standard account on the MetaTrader 4 platform as well.

This decision has been taken based on the results of a survey among traders. The absolute majority of the respondents have expressed the opinion that the possibility of simultaneous trading in currencies, cryptocurrencies and precious metals using one common account, the Standard account, opens up additional possibilities for creating new trading strategies, reducing risks and increasing profits.

The traders who prefer to separate transactions with Bitcoin, Litecoin and Etherium from transactions with traditional trading instruments can still use the dedicated CRYPTO account.
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Post  Stan NordFX on Mon Sep 11, 2017 4:00 am

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 11 - 15 September 2017

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. Since the opinions of the analysts were divided equally, we suggested to focus on the readings of the graphical analysis; both H4 and D1 indicated that the upward trend, which began in January, would continue. The target was the height of 1.2150, which the pair nearly missed, having turned around near the level of 1.2100, subsequently rolling down 70 points and finishing the week at 1.2035;

- Graphical analysis turned out to be right concerning the future of GBP/USD. Supported by 45% of analysts and 80% of indicators, it pointed to its growth to 1.3115. However, unlike EUR / USD, which did not reach the stated goal, GBP / USD, on the contrary, exceeded it, having fixed the maximum of the week at 1.3222;

- the US dollar also fell against the Japanese yen. The forecast for the USD/JPY said that the pair would once again try to test the bottom of the mid-term side channel 108.12-114.50. This was exactly what happened. Moreover, the pair tried to break through this support and descended to the level of 107.30. It will be clear in the near future whether this test has been successful or not;

- The forecast for USD/CHF turned out to be absolutely accurate. Here, the majority of analysts (about 60%), graphical analysis and more than half of the oscillators on D1 expected that it would again fall to the August 29 minimum at 0.9426. That's exactly what happened, and on Friday, September 8. the pair reached the local bottom at 0.9420.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of analysts from a number of banks and brokerages, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

– EUR/USD. Forecasting the future of this pair, most analysts (60%), as well as graphical analysis and an absolute majority of indicators, voted for the continuation of the upwards trend of the pair, foreseeing a growth to 1.2150. The following target is 1.2325. Meanwhile, graphical analysis in H4, the quarter of oscillators on D1 signalling that the pair is oversold, and 40% of experts offer an alternative viewpoint. They suggest that the pair will transition to a sideways movement in the 1.1885-1.2070 channel.
As for the longer-term forecast, over 60% of analysts remain bearish in the expectation of the pair’s eventual return to 1.1600;

– Experts’ opinions regarding the future of GBP/USD have split almost equally: 30% support the growth of the pair, an equivalent amount believes in a sideways trend, and 40% believe that the pair will fall. 100% of trend indicators and graphical analysis on D1 look northwards, whilst 20% of oscillators are already expecting a southwards reversal. The support levels are at1.2930, 1.3040 and 1.3100. The resistance levels are 1.3265 and 1.3370. The bulls’ final target is 1.3440;

– USD/JPY. Here 85% of experts believe that once the pair penetrates the lower border of the intermediate-term sideways channel it will journey southwards, aiming to settle in the 106.00-107.00 area. The remaining 15% of analysts expect a correction and the pair’s return to the resistance at 108.80. The third of oscillators on D1 that indicate the pair is oversold support this scenario;

– “South and only south” summarises the view of the 90% of analysts who maintain that USD/CHF will continue to mirror the behaviour of EUR/USD and strive to the 0.9250-09.300 area.10% of experts, 20% of oscillators and graphical analysis on D1 disagree: they suggest that the pair has nearly reached its minimum (0.9425) and is now waiting to rebound up to the resistance at 0.9540. In the event it penetrates this resistance, they suggest the pair will rise even higher to 0.9260;

In conclusion, we offer a summary of the major events that may influence the directions of the trends and the volatility of the currency pairs discussed above. Starting on Tuesday, 12 September and through to the end of the week, we will observe a continuous release of data on the US consumer market. On Thursday, 14th September the central banks of Switzerland and England will announce their rate decisions: most likely these rates will remain unchanged.

Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd, #gbpusd, #usdjpy, # forex, # forex_forecast, #forex signals, #cryptocurrencies, #bitcoin
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